
Is the USA housing market overheating ?
A few months back we did an Article on the predictions of the US housing market for 2021, we stated that inventory levels are running at an all time low and prices were beginning to rise. Fast forward six weeks and now we see a housing market staring to really heat up, some have stated the market is on fire at the moment. In nearly every US city right now, homes hitting the market are sold within hours not days, we have started to see bidding wars and the Buyer with the most cash wins. After large gains over the past five years, the nationwide nominal house price index is now 40% above its 2012 low-point and 4% above the peak reached in 2006. The circumstances contributing to today’s booming housing market are very different from what precipitated the last boom and bust cycle, there are few places where real debt per capita has increased over the past few years So why is this happening now ? surely this boom can not all be accountable to a resurgence after a global pandemic ? It is a combination of unique factors that are coming into play at the same time. First of all you have the issue of new built property, these have not kept pace with the growth of population since the 1920’s, it is in constant catch up mode. Then you have a change in Buying patterns, professionals and individuals who can work from home are buying homes to work at home and are therefore changing housing preferences. Another recent trend over the last 12 months is the shifting geography of housing demand to lower-density markets and historically low interest rates. Many people moved from city dwellings to suburbia as we all learned to adapt to the online business world. You also have the Millennials, tens of millions of Millennials have simultaneously entered the market looking for their first property, this has happened right across the US and is one one main factors leading to bidding wars, they are creating a nationwide generational housing supply shortage. On the Buyers side you are also seeing low mortgage rates which means the market is healthy for buying. Paul Lueken the chief executive of Draper and Kramer Mortgage Corp stated “As the Covid-19 vaccine is distributed, the economy will begin to open up and recover. Economic activity will most likely return to pre-pandemic levels by late 2021 or early 2022. The Federal Reserve will continue to support a low interest rate environment for much of 2021, and mortgage rates can be expected to remain low for most of the year. Home sales will therefore stay strong due to the low interest rates and the recovering economy” You also have a change in buying behaviour been fuelled by technology, you can apply for mortgage online, purchase you property online, order your inspection online and close your property online, buying a property is becoming more virtual and easily accessible. So what does all of this mean for investors ? Is this a temporary bubble that could burst or are we facing long term shortages and increasing prices ? To answer the unknown is obviously very difficult but we can look what other property experts are saying. Cision Newswire ran an article recently named “Redfin Reports Home Prices Surge 17% Amid Historic Housing Shortage” in the article it made reference to how Redfin worked on a metric system to show how the market in increasing so quickly, they compared metrics to 2020. Metrics to compare to 2020: *Asking prices reached an all-time high of $353,750. *Homes that sold during the period were on the market for a median of 23 days, the shortest time on market since 2012. This was 15 days fewer than the same period in 2020. *43% of homes sold for more than their list price, an all-time high. This was 17 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier. *The average sale-to-list price ratio—which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices—increased 2.1 percentage points year over year to an all-time high of 100.7%, meaning the average home sold for 0.7% more than its asking price. *59% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market. This is a new all-time high (Redfin’s data for this measure goes back to 2012). *46% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, an all-time high. They also stated “Demand for Second Homes Is More Than Double Pre-Pandemic Levels” “The combination of the wealthy becoming wealthier, remote work turning into the new normal and low mortgage rates is creating an ideal environment for affluent Americans to buy vacation homes,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “As long as the economy continues to grow, I don’t foresee demand for second homes slowing down anytime soon. All of which means that even if America’s housing market keeps breaking its own records in the short term, says Redfin’s Marr, it’s also fueled this time around by factors far different than the bubble that preceded the mortgage backed securities crash of 2008. So therefore if it will not be another crash what will cause a slow down in the future, what will it be ? prices can not keep going up for forever. There is no certainty to this answer but looking at other over heating housing markets we have seen that mortgage rates will tend to increase which will slow down home appreciation, this normally brings prices back in line with current salaries. Overall we are in a better position than before the Crash of 2008 which is great news if you are thinking of buying a property now, you just need to battle through getting the right property at the right price and not enter a bidding